Op-ed: How the 'greediest World Cup' quietly left Africa behind
I am Nigerian. This summer, for the second consecutive World Cup, my country will not be there. Nigeria, a nation of over 200 million people, home to Victor Osihmen, Ademola Lookman, and one of the most passionately followed footballing cultures on the planet, lost to DR Congo on penalties and was eliminated. This is a World Cup that was explicitly expanded, in the words of FIFA President Gianni Infantino, to make football “more inclusive.” I am not feeling included.
The 2026 World Cup grew from 32 to 48 teams, a decision FIFA ratified in 2017. Africa’s allocation rose from 5 to 9 direct slots. Asia’s rose from 4.5 to 8. On the surface, this looks like generosity toward the Global South. Look harder and the arithmetic becomes suspicious. Africa has 54 FIFA member associations versus Asia’s 46. More importantly, Africa’s record of World Cup performance is not even close to Asia’s. Morocco reached the semi-finals in Qatar 2022— a feat no Asian side has matched in over two decades. African teams recorded seven group-stage victories in Qatar, a continental record, with Tunisia defeating world cup champions France and Cameroon defeating Brazil. Academic analysis of the slot allocation, published in peer review research, concluded that “the CAF is robustly entitled to a higher share than the AFC” based on every available performance metric, Africa got one more slot than Asia. The continent with 8 more member nations and a categorically stronger competitive record was awarded a single additional place.
The explanation that makes sporting sense does not exist. The explanation that makes commercial sense is uncomfortable but clear. Asia’s television markets—Japan, South Korea, China, the wider Southeast Asia region— are among the most lucrative on earth for broadcasting rights and sponsorship inventory. FIFA’s projected $11 billion in revenue from the 2026 tournament depends enormously on Asian broadcast deals. African fans are passionate, but in the cold calculus of media rights, passion without purchasing power does not move the needle. More Asian teams means more Asian broadcast slots, more prime-time local audiences, more sponsorship relevance in high-GDP markets. Nigeria’s absence from the tournament does not threaten a single major commercial contract. My absence, and the absence of 200 million Nigerians, is an acceptable loss.
The honest counter-argument is worth acknowledging: nine slots is objectively more than the 5 from 4 years ago. Many countries that have never appeared at a World Cup will appear in 2026. The joy of a first qualification is real and should not be dismissed. Sporting inclusion has genuine value. But inclusion is not the same as equity, and equity cannot be claimed while the allocation contradicts every sporting metric. If FIFA’s criterion were genuinely about fan experience, Africa would have received far more slots than it did. If it were genuinely population-based, Africa’s 54-nation confederation would not be so close to Asia’s 46. The only variable that explains the near-equivalence is commercial: Asian markets are worth more. The “inclusivity” framing is not false, exactly. It is strategically incomplete. It tells you what FIFA wants you to see and withholds what it does not.
Nigeria will miss a World Cup that was supposedly expanded to include more of the world. The Super Eagles, described by analysts as being in a golden age of talent, will watch from home alongside their 200 million supporters. Meanwhile, teams from markets FIFA’s commercial partners needed in the tournament will compete in their place. This is the world’s game, they tell us. It belongs to everyone.
I am Nigerian. I have spent my whole life being told that football belongs to me while watching the institutions that govern it make decisions that suggest otherwise. The World Cup in 2026 will be the biggest, the most expensive, and the most commercially optimised in history. Whether it will be the best is a different question—and one, I have learned, that nobody with the power to answer it is actually asking.
