Investment radar: Botswana's Diamond Dynasty

For years we have been told that development in Africa is contingent on foreign aid. “African leaders should make their economies as inviting as possible to alien corporations.”  This idea continues to pervade the continent. Yet history shows the opposite: the most impactful foreign direct investment comes when African states retain control over strategic assets, and force foreign capital to serve national development rather than extract value from it. Botswana is the prime example; rising living standards, abundant job opportunities and a stable, growing economy are results seen because Botswana's bountiful diamond deposits are not exploited (as is all too common) but instead harnessed to build lasting economic wealth. This report examines how Botswana captures its value, and lays out the investment potential for future downstream development.

What Botswana did differently

Calling Botswana a diamond rich country doesn't do justice to the situation at hand. What the Botswanans have beneath their soles can only be classed as a literal treasure trove of global significance. Diamonds were discovered in the region in the 1960s and no one can be blamed for wrongly predicting the succeeding events. European and American companies have a history of flooding resource-rich African countries, extracting wealth, and leaving little behind for the local population, but one country was able to break free of this paradigm: Botswana. In collaboration with Anglo-Dutch mining company De Beers, the government of Botswana launched the joint venture Debswana. The original terms were a 50/50 ownership split between the government and De Beers, with both partners sharing profits equally, while De Beers provided technical expertise, marketing, and global sales channels for the diamonds.At a glance, this partnership appears to mirror Africa’s development nightmare: an African country relying on foreign capital to fund its growth. If that were true though, Botswana would have followed the same extractive path as its peers. The truth is, that this is something more methodical and intricate. The key word is equity. This partnership gives the government of Botswana a share in the pie and a seat at the table. Ownership can also act as a source of revenue and a bargaining tool. That's why Botswana has been able to reinvest in education, and public services, achieving the highest GDP per capita and Human Development Index of any other mainland Sub-Saharan country. 

The Debswana extension

Debswana is both a historic and evolving venture. The recent adaptations to the terms reflect a government increasingly adamant about economic sovereignty. In February 2025, the government of Botswana announced an extension to Debswana that would continue the venture up until 2054. The renegotiated contract allows Botswana to capture 40% (increased from 30%) of Diamond revenue after year 3 through the Okavango Diamond Company, with this rising to 50% in year 11. These changes are significant, but the real game-changer is the formal designation of DTC Botswana as the company that sorts and values the diamonds. What looks like a small, technical detail, actually puts Botswana firmly in control of the most valuable step in the diamond chain. 

Sorting involves classifying diamonds based on size, shape, clarity, and color. Historically De Beers has dominated the valuation and sorting process, allowing them to manipulate prices in order to benefit their downstream operations. When Botswana takes control of diamond valuation, it ensures that prices serve the nation’s economy rather than a foreign conglomerate. Additionally, because sorting is a highly specialized skill, it also creates valuable, high-skill jobs at home, turning a technical process into a catalyst for local development.

Botswana should serve as an inspiration to other African countries. Debswana: A living illustration of how the value of the land should be the experience of the people. But Debswana is not perfect. Further downstream investment can be made to capture more of the value chain.

Investment Potential

Diamonds are commonly associated with blinged-out Rolexes or expensive wedding rings; however, the diamond industry is quietly moving towards hi-tech applications. Ultra-high-purity diamonds are used in quantum computing sensors and heat dissipators in semiconductors. While it may seem like a no-brainer for Botswana to leverage its diamond reserves to invest in these industries, there remains a technical and knowledge-based hurdle. 90% of industrial diamonds are synthetically produced, which is not the same as the natural stones Botswana mines and controls. This apparent barrier is also a strategic opportunity. Diamonds are synthesized in a process called Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD), and in hi-tech applications this requires ultra-pure synthetic diamonds. CVD uses natural diamonds as a base template to produce a perfect synthetic lattice. Botswana’s expertise, institutional control, and natural resources provide a unique strategic opportunity for savvy entrepreneurs or investors to capitalize and build a future proof diamond synthesizing dynasty in Botswana.

Why this makes sense:  

• Global CVD Diamond market has a CAGR of 10.5%, expected to grow from $3.9 billion in 2025 to over $10.5 billion by 2035. (Global growth insights)
• Diamond usage in semiconductors grew by 19% YoY in 2023. (Market growth reports)
• More than 55% of CVD diamond demand comes from industrial grade diamonds. (Global growth insights)